CORSIA Credit Auctions Reflect Growing Urgency—and Opportunity—for Carbon Traders

The rising benchmark prices and the increasing structuring of procurement events point to a maturing and increasingly transparent market for CORSIA-eligible carbon credits. For commodity traders like Welhunt, these developments are not just milestones—they represent a shifting market landscape that opens up meaningful trading, offtake, and hedging opportunities.
The growing demand is clearly reflected in auction price trends: the average clearing price of CORSIA-eligible units rose from $21.70/ton in Q1 2025 to $22.55/ton in Q3, signaling growing urgency among compliance buyers. This upward pressure is further amplified by regulatory shifts.
Countries like the UK and France are moving to incorporate CORSIA into domestic law, increasing pressure on their national airlines to comply—or face penalties. This trend marks a new era of accountability and compliance-driven demand in the aviation sector.
However, supply is not keeping pace. According to the MSCI CORSIA Market Outlook Report, Phase 1 could face a supply shortfall ranging from 12 to 64 million tons (MtCO2e). As a result, MSCI models project that prices may rise significantly—anywhere between US$26 to US$63 per ton depending on the scenario.
In response to tightening supply and rising spot prices, more buyers are turning to forward contracts and guaranteed offtake agreements to secure future delivery at competitive prices. This shift not only stabilizes procurement strategies for airlines but also creates a structured, longer-term demand outlook for developers and traders alike.
As a proactive VCM trading firm, Welhunt continues to support clients by sharing market insights and identifying optimal procurement windows. Our team has successfully helped airline clients secure CORSIA-eligible emission units (CEEUs), both in the spot and forward markets, even amid tightening supply.
We believe the CORSIA market is transitioning from speculative to strategic, and those with a deep understanding of both policy signals and market dynamics will be best positioned to lead.