Carbon credit prices driven more by buyer identity than climate impact

A study led by MIT Sloan researchers found substantial price dispersion in the voluntary carbon market, with buyer identity explaining 62% of observed price variation after accounting for project and transaction characteristics. The researchers analyzed more than 7,200 transactions involving approximately 1,200 buyers and 400 projects between 2018 and 2024. The 20 largest buyers paid 16%–23% less than others, while financial and consumer goods companies generally paid premiums over industrial manufacturers. Credits from forest protection and cleaner cookstove projects also traded at higher prices than some industrial and waste-management solutions assessed as more reliable in delivering emission reductions. The researchers attributed the differences partly to buyer preferences, non-carbon benefits, volume discounts and limited price transparency, and called for publicly available historical price benchmarks.
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